Nvidia's Stock Is Expensive
Nvidia is a company that has been both overvalued and undervalued. I think Nvidia is currently overvalued. August 2015, the company was valued at about $20 per share – P/E ~ 18. Today, the company is valued at about $56 per share – P/E ~ 49. Nvidia’s earning per share dropped from FY 2015 to FY 2016 from $1.12 to $1.08. Yes, it’s not that big of a drop, and also not that big of a deal – given the industry. But, the stock is up nearly 3 times since August 2015.
Nvidia is entering a new market – the self-driving market. Nvidia has been developing their own platform called Nvidia Drive PX. Also, Tesla has partnered with Nvidia, and they have been partnered since the early development of the Model S. Nvidia powers Tesla’s 17-inch screen center console and the 12.3-inch 3D digital instrument cluster.
One reason Nvidia has been surging is because this partnership and if Tesla’s model S continues to sell well, this will affect Nvidia in a positive way. Nvidia’s automotive business has been growing drastically. The problem is that the self-driving market could still be a long wait – with regulations.
The stock is overvalued and I think there will be pull back. Nvidia is dominate in the GPU market and many companies will likely be using Nvidia’s self-driving platform. However, AMD has made some major changes, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Nvidia lost some market share to AMD.
Intel is working on making their self-driving platform a reality – bringing self-driving cars with BMW. With competition, it’ll ultimately reduce Nvidia’s market share. The self-driving market still has many unknowns and uncertainties. With the recent surge in Nvidia’s stock, I think – to some extent – investors are banking on Nvidia’s self-driving platform to be the go to platform for car makers.
This happened recently with Nintendo’s stock. Pokemon Go is extremely popular – which caused Nintendo’s stock to increase from $17.50 to $37.37. Today, however, the stock is at $25.52 after investors were told that Pokemon Go’s success wouldn’t lead to a guidance revision.
Of course, AMD’s comeback could fail. If that happens, Nvidia will continue to control nearly 80% of the high end GPU market and revenue will continue to grow in the double digits. Also, if Nvidia’s self-driving platform is vastly superior to Intel’s self-driving platform, then car makers will choose Nvidia over Intel – causing a surge in Nvidia’s automotive business. Nvidia also made over $100 million from cloud-computing. The cloud-computing business will likely grow in the high double digits. All of these factors could lead to a significant growth in revenue and ultimately reducing the P/E ratio drastically.
Sources:Why NVIDIA Stock Has Surged 43% in 2016
NVIDIA Is a Great Company, but the Stock Is Overvalued
With the given information, I don't think Nvidia has much upside. I would sell.